Wang JHWJH, Xie S, Sun JH (2011) Self-organized criticality judgment and extreme statistics analysis of major urban fires. Chinese Science Bulletin 56(6), 567-572. [In English]

Web link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11434-010-4062-y

Keywords:

self-organized criticality, extreme statistics, correlation model, major, urban fires

Abstract: The spatial (economic loss) and temporal characteristics of urban fires were analyzed employing relevant statistical methods. A fractal structure in terms of the power-law relation between fire frequency and economic loss was found on a spatial scale, and an exponential relation between frequency and time interval was found on a temporal scale. Thus, urban fire does not meet the rigorous criteria of self-organized criticality. In addition, based on the spatial power-law distribution characteristics, a correlation model of the frequency and scale of loss due to urban fire was established using the extremum statistical method. This model was then applied to the case analysis of Hefei and the probability of major fire incidents in the future was predicted.